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The basics for reading the experiment
This section explains the minimum concepts needed to understand RLTW without starting from XGBoost, Sharpe or drawdown.
01
What is a portfolio?
A portfolio is invested capital, open positions and cash. Return matters, but so does the risk taken to get there.
02
What is the Nasdaq-100?
An index of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, with heavy exposure to technology, growth and innovation.
03
What is QQQ?
QQQ is one of the most used ETFs for tracking the Nasdaq-100. For RLTW it is the passive benchmark: buy the index and hold it.
04
Why do ETFs matter?
An ETF lets investors buy an entire index with one instrument, usually with low ongoing costs and transparent exchange trading. Some brokers offer zero trading commissions, but spreads, taxes, currency and fund expenses still matter.
05
Why compare them with advised funds?
The Tony Robbins and Jack Bogle lesson is that compounded costs work against investors. An active fund must add enough value to overcome fees, internal costs and sales incentives; otherwise an indexed ETF often starts with a structural advantage.
06
What is momentum?
A stock showing relative strength may statistically keep showing strength for some time. The hard part is separating healthy momentum from an exhausted rally.
07
What does AI do?
The model does not promise a future price. It estimates a relative probability: how likely a stock is to keep or lose momentum versus others.
08
Why do costs matter?
Every rotation pays commissions and can suffer slippage. A strategy that trades often must generate enough edge to beat that friction.
09
What is drawdown?
The worst fall from a previous peak. Two strategies can end with the same return but feel very different along the way.
10
Backtest vs live
Backtest means applying a rule to the past. Live means recording a decision before knowing the outcome. RLTW shows both but keeps them separate.
11
What is RLTW?
Ride Like The Wind is the Nasdaq-100 strategy: Top 8, XGBoost, QQQ regime, quality gate, 20-day min-hold, hysteresis and winner trims.
Historical note
QQQ, ETFs and the invisible cost of funds
Why QQQ became famous
QQQ launched in 1999 to track the Nasdaq-100. It became a symbol of liquid access to technology, growth and innovative companies.
Why ETFs matter
ETFs shift attention from a product being sold to a market being bought: transparent index, exchange price and lower fee drag.
The fee lesson
A small annual fee compounded for years can consume a large share of returns. That is why QQQ is the minimum benchmark to beat.
Now see the experiment
The important part is measurable comparison: same initial capital, same start date, stated costs and visible benchmarks.