Results
Backtest first, live second
Two steps, two numbers. The backtest says why the pickles are under observation. The live books, from August 2026, measure who is performing now — decision by decision. They are separate numbers and should not be added.
Step 1 · Validation
Walk-forward backtest: €10,000 from 2 January 2025
This is why the models are being watched. EMC is the research champion; RLTW is the ML book (higher Sharpe, smaller drop). Not today's NAV.
| Strategy | Final capital | Return | Vs QQQ | Sharpe | Worst drop | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | ~€13,890 | +39% | base | - | - | Passive. No rotations. |
| MC | ~€41,720 | +317% | +276 pts | 1.9 | -40% | Top 10. Friday close → Monday open. Official rules, 0.19%. |
| EMC | ~€51,120 | +411% | +372 pts | 2.1 | -37% | Top 8, 60% Stage 2 + 40% last 4 weeks. Same MC calendar. |
| RLTW v3 | ~€33,300 | +233% | +194 pts | 2.8 | -23% | Top 8 ML. Trade when Wizard / check-up says so. |
These are historical simulations: ~20 months, mostly bullish Nasdaq, current universe and 0.19% per side costs. They explain the thesis; they are not today's live portfolio.
Portfolio growth
Model value compared with QQQ, from €10,000 on 2 January 2025
Building the walk-forward curve from 2 January 2025. QQQ is already live; the two models appear when the cache is ready.
Step 2 · Who is performing now
The pickles stay those from the gate. The paper books start here.
After validation, four $10,000 accounts run in parallel: RLTW (ML), EMC (our momentum), corrected MC (published rules + our costs) and QQQ (passive yardstick). RLTW, MC and QQQ from 25 August 2026; EMC from 31 August 2026 — six days later, so it is not yet even. The XGBoost brain was not replaced. This step is not the +233%.
Live books not available yet.
MomentumCommand figures
The old +79% replica was a 13-week QQQ proxy, not their model. The engine now follows the published rules (Stage 2 ranking, SPX 10/30/40-week regime, next-open fills, BIL, 25→20 trim). From 2 January 2025 at 0 fees it returns +331% versus ~+336% on their site (YTD +118% vs +129%; 6-month both +38%). With the same 0.19% fees as RLTW it is +317%. In this bull MC made more; RLTW drew down less (−23% vs −40%).
Modello di ricerca, non consulenza finanziaria. RLTW, EMC e il libro MC corretto applicano la stessa commissione 0,19%/lato su ogni rotation. EMC è live dal 31 agosto 2026. MomentumCommand sul loro sito resta a 0 fee: qui lo ricalcoliamo con i nostri costi, sugli holding che pubblicano. I rendimenti partono dal giorno di avvio del libro pubblico, non dal backtest storico. Every live comparison uses the same start date. Historical simulations remain documented in model pages and reports.